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Three Steps To Secure Brexit

Those who do not wish to see the demise of the Conservative party, and Britain destroyed by a regressive Corbyn government ('Corbygeddon'), now have very few cards to play. Those cards are…
  1. to cancel Tory membership with a letter citing failure to deliver Brexit,
  2. to join UKIP and
  3. to campaign for UKIP resurgence in the 2018 local elections.
Before you write off this claim as paranoid fantasy, please consider the reasoned argument below.

1) Four decades of failure by Tory Euroskeptics

Bill Cash, John Redwood, Peter Lilley and all the other Tory EUskepticks may be heroes of the movement but they have failed for decades to steer the Tory parliamentary party towards Brexit. The Tory party is still dominated by Remain-voters today.

2) UKIP Split the Tory Vote

UKIP forced Cameron to promise the Referendum by chiselling away at Tory grassroots EUskeptics and gaining significant marginal vote share in…
  • 2010 (UKIP votes:919,546, share of votes:3.1%, gain:+0.9%)
  • 2013 (UKIP +139 seats, Con -335 seats)*
  • 2014 (UKIP votes:4,376,635, vote share:26.60%, vote share gain: +10.61%, seats:24, seat share:32.88%) OUTRIGHT WIN FOR UKIP, LABOUR 2ND with 4,020,646 votes.
  • 2015 (UKIP votes 3,881,099, vote share:12.6%, gain:+9.5%)

(* The BBC published projected national vote shares, adjusting for which regions were to hold local elections and extrapolating to the national situation. These were Labour 29%, Conservatives 25%, UKIP 23% and the Liberal Democrats 14%.)

3) UKIP Forced Tories to Promise a Referendum

UKIP's meteoric gains in 2010-2014 forced Cameron to offer a referendum. Tories were desperate to stop Milliband and had to win back a significant percentage of the voters who had drifted to UKIP. They succeeded, just, but Cameron was unhappy about having to fulfil his referendum promise. Tories tried everything to avert a Leave vote.

4) Tories Are Still Blocking EUskeptics

In the 2017 general election Conservative Central HeadQuarters (CCHQ) blocked from standing eminently qualified pro-Brexit candidates like David Campbell Bannerman even though Brexit was Tory policy. Why? They also allowed arch-Remainers like Vicky Ford, Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry to stand. Why?

The result of this was that the number of pro-Remain Tory MPs actually grew in the 2017 General Election. Why would you deliberately increase the numbers of MPs in your parliamentary party who disagree with your number one major policy? Why? Think. Why would May/CCHQ do that? Why did they want to make it harder for themselves to carry out their own policy?

There is only one rational answer: you do that as part of a long term plan to obstruct the result of the Referendum. You do it to increase the chances of Remaining in the EU. You do it to ensure that pro-Brexit Tories are a minority and can not find support in the parliamentary party. You do it to keep the Remainers in charge of government. Why do you want Remainers in charge of government when the policy is to Leave? Who really chooses the Tory leadership candidates? How did May win? How did John Major win? The Tory MPs really choose the candidates for leader. This is very important: the members do not choose the candidates for leadersihp of the party. The power of members is an illusion. Any pro-Brexit candidate for the leadership may well be a stooge. Boris has already been set up as such by putting him in the Foreign Office, a rôle for which he is peculiarly unsuited.

5) Fake Brexit

Brexit is therefore seriously at risk because it is in the hands of determined and subtle Remainers. Evidence of schemes to thwart Brexit are…
  • The Dutch plebiscite was ignored
  • The French plebiscite was ignored
  • The Irish plebiscite was ignored
  • Article 50 is a trap
  • May's peculiar coronation
  • Twenty-two Remain-supporters in cabinet
  • The inept Rudd and Hammond promoted, both ardent Remain-supporters
  • Delay in Article 50 letter & repeal of European Communities Act
  • New commitments in Oct 2016 towards unification of EU military command and procurement
  • Policy of an "implementation period" of unknown duration
  • Policy of a "transitional phase" of unknown duration ("about two years": Greg Hands)
  • May's offer to pay £20,000,000,000 to start negotiations, with no basis in law
  • The pretence that it is possible to negotiate with EU despite track-record
  • The failure to mobilise civil service to take back control of borders
  • The failure to insist on taking back control of maritime zone
  • The failure to increase defence spending
  • The promise to expand commitment to "Common Security & Defence Policy" i.e. EU military
  • May refused to say she would vote for her own government's policy to Brexit
  • Hammond refused to say he would vote for his own government's policy
  • Damian Green refused to say he would vote for his own government's policy
  • Hammond's instinctive refusal to commit funds to "no deal"
  • The failure to rein in the BBC's flagrant bias against Brexit
  • The failure to commit to a clear Brexit timetable
  • The failure to explain the advantages and opportunities of Brexit
  • The failure to sack Jeremy Heywood, the arch-Remainer who controls civil service, for negligence
  • The failure to buy land at sea ports for improved lorry customs screening

I could go on but there's a start. So far there are no tangible signs that government is going to go anywhere near actual real Brexit, the thing we voted for in 2016, and there are plenty of signs that the May government and Parliament are looking for every means to stop it.

6) Save Our Brexit

Since May's government looks secretly determined not to allow true Brexit, or appears to wish to sabotage it, how can we force them to change course and actually deliver it? Well, how did we force them to listen in 2010-2013? By playing hard ball. Not through 40 years of reasoned argument and fervour. Ask Bill Cash. No, UKIP stole their votes and their members, and thereby threatened their jobs. Power is the only currency in which they deal. They eat it, drink it, and breathe it. It is the only imperative. Tories will only contemplate true Brexit when they realise that the 17,410,742 are deserting them (and many more who have joined us since). Only the threat of letting in Corbyn can bully these treacherous remainbots into finding the spine to leave.

7) Effective Action

Here are things that you can actually do which will have some modest influence:
  • Cancel Tory membership explaining why: "transitional phase" means neverLeave
  • Join UKIP, the Brexit party, so that Tory spies are alarmed by defections
  • Persuade councillors/MPs to defect to UKIP
  • Campaign hard for an upturn in UKIP votes in imminent 2018 local elections
  • Keep UKIP pressure up till real Brexit delivered
  • Anything else you can think of which will produce Tory panic and a pro-Brexit coup
  • Return to the Tories after real Brexit to help them win in 2022

8) Don't Be Afraid

Project Fear is alive and working on you. Your objections to this course may be…

i) you want to keep Tory membership to be able to vote in leadership election

ii) defecting to UKIP will promote general election through no-confidence vote

Neither of these fears is well-founded:

    (i) If you don't cancel your vote you probably won't get a leadership change, and May will stumble on, failing to deliver real Brexit until Corbyn wins in 2022. 70% of Tories voted Leave, so you can be assured that any real pro-Brexit Tory leadership candidate will win with or without your vote.

    UKIP membership and votes have far more influence on who the Tory parliamentary party installs as leader (via candidate selection). Cancelling your Tory membership with a promise to return once real pro-Brexit MPs control government, is one of the only things you can actually do to stop Corbyn. Tough love is the only way to save the Tory party and country. 57% of UKIP voters voted for May in 2017 on the promise of Brexit, so the Tories know how to win back defecting voters from UKIP.

    (ii) A vote of no-confidence in a Tory government is very unlikely as Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. All Tory MPs will support the Tory government, as will the DUP who loathe IRA-supporting Corbyn. The next general election will be in 2022, but even if it were earlier, a strong pro-Brexit Tory leader would be more likely to beat Corbyn than Theresa May.

So neither of those objections withstands scrutiny. They are part of May's pro-Remain Project Fear MKII. She offers a false dichotomy: May (fake Brexit) or Corbyn.

There is a more certain way to avoid Corbygeddon: a new EUskeptic Prime Minister swiftly delivering true Brexit followed by a 2022 Tory WIN. If you want to avoid Corbygeddon, I hope you now know what to do.